Israel's Going To Clean House
Israel has an existential problem. It’s just beyond its northern borders. And it must be addressed.
Lebanon, Syria and Iraq are full of military bases run by Iranian-controlled Shia militias. That line of bases supports and protects smuggling routes from Iran to Lebanon. Weapons, including artillery rockets, anti-tank missiles, RPGs, mines and explosives are transported to Iran's state supported terrorist groups via those routes. Those groups include Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine. This is how Hamas got the 5000 artillery rockets it launched at the opening moment of their assault on southern Israel from Gaza.
So far Israel has been content to periodically bomb the bases closest to its borders when big weapons shipments arrive. No longer. After the IDF finishes cleaning out Gaza and destroying Hamas they'll remove those bases in Lebanon and Syria once and for all. They have to. They're an existential threat to Israel.
That may be just the beginning. Hezbollah is deeply rooted in Lebanon. Like Hamas their mission is to destroy Israel and 'drive the Jews into the sea'. I don't think Israel is willing to tolerate their existence on their northern border anymore. Another invasion of Lebanon may be in the offing in the not too distant future.
If Israel can destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon then Syria may be next. Bashir Al Assad is a major ally of Iran. The Syrian military, Iranian-controlled local Syrian militias and Al Quds troops from the Iranian military all work together hand in glove in Syria. If it weren't for Iranian support Al Assad's regime would've fallen years ago.
Up until now Israel has walked a tightrope, avoiding triggering Russia. One-fifth of Israel's population is Russian Jews. There's a large number of Russian troops in Syria. There's Russian military air operations out of the Damascus airport. Russia has a major naval base at Tartarus on the Syrian Mediterranean coast. Russia has an unwritten agreement with Israel not to shoot down their planes when they attack Iranian assets in Syria.
Now that's all changed. In the months before the attack the Hamas leadership has made multiple trips to Moscow, meeting in person with Putin. There's claims that Russia has shipped a large number of western weapons captured in Ukraine to Hamas to be used in this attack on Israel. If true then Russia has committed an act of war against Israel.
What Israel does about Syria depends upon the fortunes of Russia. Russia has already withdrawn a lot of forces and equipment from Syria to use in Ukraine. If Russia is defeated or extremely weakened by the war in Ukraine then Israel may feel that the Russian threat is diminished enough that they can get away with invading Syria. That would mean at a minimum taking out Iranian forces in Syria. It could mean deposing Al Assad and handing Syria over to opposition rebel forces. Israel would likely ally with and fight with those rebels in the invasion were taking down Al Assad their goal.
This is the only way I can see Israel preserving its existence. They can't suffer another attack like this. The next one might involve WMDs such as chemical weapons warheads on those massive rocket barrages. Now that Israel has received its wakeup call they'll do what they need to do. Don't expect peace in the Middle East anytime soon because Israel's going to be cleaning house. The rest of the world won't like it but that won't stop them. Nor should it.