The Hamas attack on Israel was more horrific than any in memory. Not so much in numbers, high as they were. But in the torture and mutilation of victims. The fact that Israelis from babies to the elderly were slaughtered. That the primary target was civilians in their own homes.
The Israeli military is now going into Gaza with the hope of eliminating Hamas. Or at least killing those responsible for the attack. Even if that's successful it doesn't solve the problem.
Israel can't live next to Hamas. This attack made that perfectly clear. While many Hamas terrorists and leaders will die, the destruction inflicted on Gaza will create legions of new Hamas cadres. Hamas isn't going away.
Israel also can't live with Hizbollah on its northern border. Hizbollah has amassed an arsenal of 100,000 - 150,000 rockets to attack Israel. While most are short range artillery rockets, there are still large number of longer range precision guided ballistic missiles that can reach anywhere in Israel. Hizbollah is well entrenched in Lebanon, militarily, politically and socially. They aren't going away, either.
Israel can't live with the Iranian Islamist theocracy. Iran has hundreds of precision guided intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) that can strike Israel. Iran continues research and development on nuclear weapons. They may get a leg up on their nuclear research by trading oil for nuclear weapons tech with North Korea. If even a single nuclear weapon on an IRBM got through Israel's defense and hit Tel Aviv it'd be the end of the Jewish state. There's no indication that the Iranian Ruling Council of Mullahs or their Supreme Leader is going away, either.
These are existential threats to Israel. This attack has shown that suppression and containment of terrorist groups isn't a viable strategy.
And it's not just Israel. America can't live with a nuclear-armed Iranian terrorist state, either. The threat of an Iranian nuclear attack (attempted or successful) on Israel triggering a regional nuclear war is far too high. Such a war could spin out of control into a global thermonuclear holocaust. Or if Israel nuked Iran is could inflame Muslims worldwide into violent jihad against Israel and the west. There's millions of Muslims in just about every western nation. Either scenario would be an existential threat to western civilization itself.
The question is, what can be done?
For Israel right now Hamas is the biggest problem. Once their military operation is over Israel has loudly stated that their management of Gaza is at an end. They've said the Arab, Muslim and international communities will have to deal with them from here on out. That in no way ends the Hamas threat.
Some have suggested driving all of Gaza's residents over the Egyptian border into the Sinai. Egypt would not allow Palis to move west into Egypt proper. They'd be living in camps along the Israel/Egypt border. That would only mean that instead of policing eight miles of Gaza border, instead Israel would have to police 80 miles of Egyptian border, making the problem that much worse. And of course it'd lay waste the half-century of peace efforts between Israel and Arab nations, especially Egypt. That's a non-starter.
A few have suggested Israel simply kill all the Palis in Gaza. Do I even need to explain how stupid this would be? That would so isolate Israel that it'd be extremely unlikely they could survive, thus doing the terrorist's work for them.
Then there's Hizbollah. Thus far Hizbollah has limited itself to probing strikes and trying to take out Israel's border surveillance network. Hizbollah leaders well remember how much damage they took and money they lost in the 2006 war where Israel invaded Lebanon to go after Hizbollah. Hizbollah these days is more an international organized crime group with a terrorist front. They're businessmen, and launching a massive attack on Israel would be very, very bad for business. Even Iran may be unwilling to see Hizbollah's influence over the region as disposable as they found Hamas to be. That being said, Israel can't take the chance of those 100,000+ rockets being unleashed on their civilians.
As for Iran, it seems likely that with their funding, arming and likely planning the entire Hamas attack that Israel must act. They can't let Iran get nuclear weapons. They’ve shown their willingness to attack Israel and slaughter Jews. Thus an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile facilities is very likely in the not too distant future. America is likely to join in that strike.
With Iran's military capability severely damaged that would have downstream effects on their proxy groups, including Hamas, Hizbollah and their Shia militias in Syria and Iraq. Israel might have to strike Hizbollah directly at the same time. After Israel's incursion into Gaza Hamas will likely be far too damaged to be an immediate threat. That covers all three of Israel’s existential threats.
This seems to me to be the most likely outcome. Strike Iran before they get nukes. Strike Hizbollah first to reduce the inevitable massive rocket attack they'd launch to avenge the attack on Iran. Do this before Hamas has the chance to reconstitute itself and rebuild its capabilities.
Whether America joins in may well be determined by the 2024 election. Biden would be very resistant to attacking Iran in an election year. But his hand could be forced by Iran successfully building a nuclear bomb. If Senile Joe's still in office after the election I think he'd do it regardless. There's nothing to lose when you don't have to worry about reelection. Trump is an unpredictable wild card. Nobody's sure what he'd do were he elected.
I think Arab nations would decry an attack on Iran in public. But in private they'd be overjoyed to see their blood enemy, Iran, and its proxies laid low. After all, Iran is using Houthi separatist rebels to constantly attack the Saudis with cruise and ballistic right now. The Turks and most of the Arab nations are Sunni. The very last thing they want is an ascendant Shia Iran dominating the Muslim world. They'll not only applaud an attack on Iran, they'll do what they can behind the scenes to facilitate it.
As for Hamas, the ugly truth is that Arab nations hate the Palis even more than Israel does. I've had several Arabs tell me straight out that Palis are viewed in the Muslim world as, and this is a direct quote, "the n*ggers of the Middle East". They're viewed as violent criminal animals, and this latest attack only amplified that image. There's a lot of outrage on the Arab street about Gaza being bombed, but only faux outrage from Arab leadership.
Events can turn on a dime in the Middle East, as we just saw. All of this could change overnight and be made moot. That's the danger of linear analysis. But if there aren't any huge shifts this may well be the future of the region. No one can deny the threat any longer. It must be dealt with one way or another. Iran and their terrorist tools poked the Israeli lion and it's not going back to sleep. We think war has arrived, and it's pretty bad. But just wait. It's going to get a lot worse.