The Ukraine Situation; So Many Wrong Assumptions And Surprises
Here's some of the failed narratives and surprises about the war in Ukraine.
Putin's not crazy enough to try and take all of Ukraine - That was obviously the first bit of conventional wisdom to fall once the invasion started. Nobody (myself included) expected that Vlad would go for the whole enchilada. We totally underestimated his territorial ambitions and disregard for the consequences.
Russia victimology - Many have claimed that Putin invaded because 'he was provoked by the west'. Yes, Russia has been treated badly, but that's not at all the whole story. Anyone familiar with Putin and his writings know he's been saying Ukraine is 'lost Russian territory' and would be 'reunited with the Motherland' for decades now. The invasion has been planned for that long. And it mirrors what Vlad's already done in South Ossetia, Georgia and Crimea. This was a continuation of the same, just on a grander scale. He was waiting for the right opportunity, which Biden's election provided.
The other part of this is Russia's shelling of civilian areas with heavy guns, rocket artillery and cluster munitions. There's far too much evidence now to pretend this isn't happening. And it's been standard practice for the Russian military, most notably in Chechnya where whole towns and the city of Grozny were leveled. Same in Syria, Georgia and South Ossetia. Russia is acting as a villain, not a victim.
The invasion would be over in days - There's two surprises here. One is how degraded the much-vaunted Russian military has become. The other is how good the Ukrainian military has become. It seems that Russia will eventually succeed, but it looks like the resistance campaign is going to be just as bad for Russia as their bogged-down invasion has been.
Ukrainian disinformation - Everyone expected the usual mass disinformation campaign from the Russian government, and they haven't disappointed. That's unsurprising as their government has several disinformation bureaus in it's org chart. What's surprised everyone is the disinformation campaign from Ukraine. It's been widespread, skillful and effective. Prime examples are 'The Ghost of Kiev', a supposed Ukrainian fighter ace shooting down a half dozen Russian aircraft. Also, the 'heroes of Snake Island' who we were told died bravely after defying a Russian warship's demand for surrender. Apparently they're alive and surrendered. And there's a new claim that that same Russian warship was sunk, which is in doubt now.
Fighter jets donated by Poland - This was an ongoing thing for a week or so. This idea was at first presented as a done deal by the media. The Poles quickly tried to refute it. The White House directly contradicted the Poles, saying it was going to happen. Just today the Biden administration finally admitted the plan is DOA.
America wants war with Russia - I always thought this was one of the stupidest claims of all. The idea that our government wanted our soldiers in direct combat with Russian troops is idiotic on its face. We have a relatively small number of troops in Europe. The latest deployments have been tiny forces meant to deter Russia from going into NATO nations. All one need do is look at the prep done for both Gulf Wars. Massive amounts of equipment and over 100,000 American troops were sent just to deal with Saddam Hussein. That's what real war preparations looks like. And everyone understands that direct combat between America and Russia could easily escalate to global thermonuclear war. This whole idea was utter bullshit from the get-go.
We've put super-tough sanctions on Russia - This one was pretty transparent. We did go after Putin's cronies, seizing their assets, villas and yachts. But the real pressure point was and remains the west buying Russia's oil and natural gas. They're finally talking about stopping that, but only because of the growing public outrage. The Biden administration and Europeans did everything possible to resist cutting off the flow of Russian oil and gas to the west. Fortunately it seems they're on the verge of folding on this issue now. We can only hope.
NATO expansion is an evil plot by America against Russia - No doubt this and past administrations wanted exactly this. But the fact is NATO expansion is a self-inflicted wound for Russia. The newest members are former Warsaw Pact nations that suffered horribly under Soviet rule. They have every historical reason to hate and fear Russian. And Russia's recent habit of invading its neighbors and seizing their sovereign territory only further drove these countries into NATO's arms. We didn't have to persuade any of them to join. The literally begged to become NATO members. Russia's entirely to blame for that.
Russian cyberattacks would bring the west to its knees - We heard the dire warnings about how our infrastructure, government, military and private companies would grind to a halt after Russian hackers had their way with us. There have been a few minor incidents, but that's it. The all-out Russian cyberwar on the west never materialized. Even Ukraine, which has been the subject of Russian cyberwarriors, has come out relatively unscathed.
That's just a few off the top of my head. I'm sure there's a lot more I missed. But we were wrong about so many things and surprised so many times. It's amazing how we got it all so very wrong.
The deep lack of understanding of just about every aspect of the Ukraine crisis is more than a bit disturbing. With our leadership, ‘experts’, media and social media pundits being this misguided on just about every aspect of this, we can only imagine how deluded we are about all the other hotspots around the globe. That’s a truly sobering thought.