What's going to happen in Ukraine? Some saner military analysts are predicting Russian forces will take Kyiv by the end of April. The other major cities would fall after the Russians held the heart of Ukraine. That would mean a strategic victory for Russia, though they'd only actually control the big cities, connecting corridors and the eastern pro-Russian areas.
Okay, if that happens, then what? The Russians have nowhere near enough troops to control and pacify a nation of 44 million people. There will be an insurgency a lot like Iraq after Gulf War II if Russia wins. Russia, especially with its sanction-crushed economy, can't afford to keep the troops they have in Ukraine now in country for more than a few months, much less decades of occupation.
The question then becomes WWPD; 'what will Putin do?' If he's logical he'll likely demand a partition of Ukraine, with Russian speaking areas becoming Russian sovereign territory and western Ukraine left as the nation of Ukraine. It's questionable whether the Ukrainians would agree to this kind of deal. Western European countries, however, might jump at the deal and ram it down Zelenskyy's throat by threating to cut off military aid if he doesn't accept.
Or Putin may double down and try to pacify the entire nation. That would be a horrifically bloody and costly endeavor that could well lead to Putin being deposed. It would mean Russia would be an irredeemable pariah nation in the eyes of the world. It would mean a new full-blown cold war and a far higher risk of global nuclear holocaust.
And there's still a small chance that, with western arms flowing in the Ukrainians could prevail in the end. That also could well be the end of Putin's reign. It would leave an angry, bitter, isolated Russia that the west would continue to punish. An endless poking of the bear could have very bad results in the long term.
There is one last possibility; the worst one of all by far. Russian generals get desperate and turn to their time-honored scorched earth tactic to break the enemy's resolve. That means using massive firepower, especially artillery, to flatten civilian urban areas. That's already starting to happen. When video of the devastation leaks out public outrage compels Biden to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. American and Russian aircraft engage in combat. Things escalate into direct ground combat between NATO and Russian forces. Russia deploys tactical nukes as they've repeatedly threatened to do should NATO join the war. WWIII ensues.
It seems the best outcome overall may be a pyrrhic victory for Russia that ends with Ukraine being partitioned and Russia withdrawing from western Ukraine. Ukraine would be screwed as the Russians would want a corridor along the coast to Moldova. I don't think Putin would accept a deal without that. That leaves what's left of Ukraine a landlocked nation with no ports on the Black Sea. That would be economically devastating to Ukraine. It would be much worse if the Russians insisted on keeping Kyiv. Russia would also want sanctions ended. Even if that was agreed to Europe is going to do everything possible to end its dependence upon Russian energy. They'll also end trade with Russia. That will hurt the Russian economy worse than official sanctions.
The end result of this would be really bad for Ukraine, really bad for Russia and good for Europe and the U.S. We'd have a far weaker Russia to deal with. NATO would be greatly strengthened. European nations will beef up their military defense capabilities regardless of which of these scenarios comes to pass. This means a more secure Europe and a closer relationship between Europe and America.
Of course it's entirely possible some other totally unexpected outcome occurs with unforeseen consequences. Nobody knows the future. We can only hope that cooler heads prevail and the worst scenarios are avoided. But looking at human history and the leaders running the show we can't be confident that'll be the case. Now would be a great time to pray.
I don't think the "Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Union" argument is real. Strategically speaking, I believe Putin wants to accomplish 4 goals:
1) Solidify control of the Black Sea by creating a land based corridor in Eastern Ukraine to transport troops and supplies to Crimea, particularly to the naval base at Sevastopol. 2) Eliminate the land access corridor to Ukraine south of the Carpathian mountains by taking Odessa (solidifying goal 1) 3) Neutralize Ukraine as a potential NATO ally and eliminate any consideration of the same for Belarus, protecting the Western Russia border. 4) Minimize damage to cities in order to minimize any reconstruction costs that might fall on Russia to pay (I know this flies in the face of the media reports we are seeing but let's be realistic: if Russia's goal was to absolutely control major population areas, it would have already bombed the hell out of them and leveled them to the ground by this point).
"Looking at human history and the leaders running the show"I am certainly concerned about the instability in the world today. Irrespective of the various opinions I have read concerning Putin's motives for this basically unprovoked aggression in Ukraine, I believe Putin has become a rabid autocrat intent on bolstering his power. The operative word here is RABID. As much as I abhor the abuse of using a basically demented, senile old fool for politiocal purposes, we are in effect being governed by a witless clown and a vacuous, corrupt congress which any fool can see is being manipulated by an insidious cabal that is orchestrating the sideshow for our distraction while God knows what is being planned and worked out in secret. Further scanning the rest of the European leaders and Canada, I don't see any Winston Churchills out there. Trudeau is an effete, egotistical pseudo dictator. SO YES THIS IS A VERY GOOD TIME TO PRAY.